BMY · Trade Economics

Closed · forced exit dte 3

2x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 22, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-09-25.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length6dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-0.67Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability70.4%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$62.48At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`BMY260925P00064000`	$64.00	Call	2026-09-25	$0.92	$3.35
Long Wing	`BMY260925P00061000`	$61.00	Call	2026-09-25	$0.33	$0.00

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$63.41Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+1.49%+$0.93 to BE

Expected Move (1σ)±3.27%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio0.46x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$61.00Structural floor intact

Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (1.49%) represents only 46% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$0.59Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$118.002 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$600.00$3.00 spread width

Max Potential Risk$482.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital24.5%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$1.88 / sh$376.00 to close

Net Realized P&L$-258.00-218.6% of credit

Capital Preserved+$224.00Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggerforced exit dte 3Automated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $118.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $1.88. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $224.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.