FIVE · Trade Economics

Closed · max holding sessions 3

1x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Aug 31, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-09-18.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length3dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-1.59Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability83.3%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$247.03At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`FIVE260918P00300000`	$300.00	Put	2026-09-18	$55.80	$60.10
Long Wing	`FIVE260918P00290000`	$290.00	Put	2026-09-18	$49.80	$47.70

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$294.00Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+19.02%+$46.97 to BE

Expected Move (1σ)±10.10%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio1.88x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$290.00Wing breached

Feasibility Rule Status: Improbable (>1.25x Expected Move). The required move to breakeven (19.02%) exceeds 1.25x the expected move, indicating statistically improbable recovery before expiration.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$6.00Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$600.001 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$1,000.00$10.00 spread width

Max Potential Risk$400.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital150.0%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$12.40 / sh$1,240.00 to close

Net Realized P&L$-640.00-106.7% of credit

Capital Preserved+$0.00Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggermax holding sessions 3Automated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $600.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $12.40. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $0.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.