ONTO · Trade Economics

Closed · risk rules satisfied

1x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Aug 31, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-09-18.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length3dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-1.36Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability72.4%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$270.67At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`ONTO260918P00320000`	$320.00	Put	2026-09-18	$49.60	$50.50
Long Wing	`ONTO260918P00310000`	$310.00	Put	2026-09-18	$45.20	$36.10

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$315.60Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+16.60%+$44.93 to BE

Expected Move (1σ)±9.35%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio1.77x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$310.00Wing breached

Feasibility Rule Status: Improbable (>1.25x Expected Move). The required move to breakeven (16.60%) exceeds 1.25x the expected move, indicating statistically improbable recovery before expiration.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$4.40Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$440.001 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$1,000.00$10.00 spread width

Max Potential Risk$560.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital78.6%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$11.50 / sh$1,150.00 to close

Net Realized P&L$-710.00-161.4% of credit

Capital Preserved+$0.00Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggerrisk rules satisfiedAutomated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $440.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $11.50. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $0.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.

6. Broker Execution Audit Trail

Alpaca paper trading order submissions and fills

Time (UTC)	Order ID	Side	Qty	Limit Price	Status
13:46:32	`xpc-7b914e17d2e5...`	sell_to_open	1	$9.19	filled