ONTO · Trade Economics

Closed · max holding sessions 3

1x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 8, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-09-18.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length3dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-1.36Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability72.4%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$270.67At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`ONTO260918P00320000`	$320.00	Put	2026-09-18	$49.60	$50.50
Long Wing	`ONTO260918P00310000`	$310.00	Put	2026-09-18	$45.20	$36.10

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$315.60Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+16.60%+$44.93 to BE

Expected Move (1σ)±9.35%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio1.77x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$310.00Wing breached

Feasibility Rule Status: Improbable (>1.25x Expected Move). The required move to breakeven (16.60%) exceeds 1.25x the expected move, indicating statistically improbable recovery before expiration.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$4.40Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$440.001 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$1,000.00$10.00 spread width

Max Potential Risk$560.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital78.6%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$14.40 / sh$1,440.00 to close

Net Realized P&L$-1,000.00-227.3% of credit

Capital Preserved+$0.00Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggermax holding sessions 3Automated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $440.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $14.40. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $0.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.