DASH · Trade Economics

Closed · catastrophic debit cap

6x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 10, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-09-25.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length6dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-2.06Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability72.0%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$194.42At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`DASH260925P00200000`	$200.00	Call	2026-09-25	$9.95	$12.10
Long Wing	`DASH260925P00190000`	$190.00	Call	2026-09-25	$5.45	$3.55

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$195.50Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+0.56%+$1.08 to BE

Expected Move (1σ)±7.32%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio0.08x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$190.00Structural floor intact

Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (0.56%) represents only 8% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$4.50Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$2,700.006 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$6,000.00$10.00 spread width

Max Potential Risk$3,300.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital81.8%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$8.20 / sh$4,920.00 to close

Net Realized P&L$-2,220.00-82.2% of credit

Capital Preserved+$1,080.00Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggercatastrophic debit capAutomated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $2,700.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $8.20. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $1,080.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.