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Daily Summary

FIG · Trade Economics

Closed · catastrophic debit cap

25x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 10, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-09-25.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length7dnegative streak
Robust Z-Score-0.91Deviation vs SPY
Reversion Probability78.6%Bayesian model
Underlying Spot$21.89At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

RoleContract SymbolStrikeOption TypeExpirationEntry PriceCurrent/Exit Price
Short LegFIG260925P00022500$22.50Call2026-09-25$1.32$1.73
Long WingFIG260925P00021500$21.50Call2026-09-25$0.90$0.85

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$22.08Short strike minus credit
Move Needed to Win+0.84%+$0.18 to BE
Expected Move (1σ)±7.32%Volatility over remaining DTE
Feasibility Ratio0.12x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM
Long Wing Barrier$21.50Structural floor intact
Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (0.84%) represents only 12% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$0.42Per share ($100/contract)
Upfront Cash Collected$1,050.0025 contracts total
Gross Margin Required$2,500.00$1.00 spread width
Max Potential Risk$1,450.00Capped worst-case loss
Max Return on Capital72.4%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$0.88 / sh$2,200.00 to close
Net Realized P&L$-1,150.00-109.5% of credit
Capital Preserved+$300.00Shielded vs full max loss
Resolution Triggercatastrophic debit capAutomated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $1,050.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $0.88. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $300.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.