← Back to Journal (Sep 14, 2026)/ADBE Economic Report
Daily Summary

ADBE · Trade Economics

Closed · early profit target

15x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 14, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-09-18.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length4dnegative streak
Robust Z-Score-0.71Deviation vs SPY
Reversion Probability84.8%Bayesian model
Underlying Spot$260.18At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

RoleContract SymbolStrikeOption TypeExpirationEntry PriceCurrent/Exit Price
Short LegADBE260918P00247500$247.50Call2026-09-18$7.65$1.85
Long WingADBE260918P00237500$237.50Call2026-09-18$4.10$0.15

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$243.95Short strike minus credit
Move Needed to Win+0.00%In The Money
Expected Move (1σ)±3.78%Volatility over remaining DTE
Feasibility Ratio0.00x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM
Long Wing Barrier$237.50Structural floor intact
Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (0.00%) represents only 0% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$3.55Per share ($100/contract)
Upfront Cash Collected$5,325.0015 contracts total
Gross Margin Required$15,000.00$10.00 spread width
Max Potential Risk$9,675.00Capped worst-case loss
Max Return on Capital55.0%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$1.70 / sh$2,550.00 to close
Net Realized P&L+$2,775.0052.1% of credit
Capital Preserved—Shielded vs full max loss
Resolution Triggerearly profit targetAutomated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $5,325.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $1.70. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $0.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.