ABNB · Trade Economics

Closed · forced exit dte 3

17x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 15, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-09-18.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length4dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-1.61Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability69.4%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$167.31At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`ABNB260918P00172500`	$172.50	Call	2026-09-18	$4.05	$6.90
Long Wing	`ABNB260918P00165000`	$165.00	Call	2026-09-18	$2.18	$1.16

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$170.63Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+1.98%+$3.32 to BE

Expected Move (1σ)±3.27%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio0.61x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$165.00Structural floor intact

Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (1.98%) represents only 61% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$1.87Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$3,179.0017 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$12,750.00$7.50 spread width

Max Potential Risk$9,571.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital33.2%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$5.74 / sh$9,758.00 to close

Net Realized P&L$-6,579.00-207.0% of credit

Capital Preserved+$2,992.00Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggerforced exit dte 3Automated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $3,179.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $5.74. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $2,992.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.