BAX · Trade Economics

Closed · forced exit dte 3

1x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 15, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-09-18.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length4dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-1.12Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability70.4%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$23.64At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`BAX260918P00024000`	$24.00	Call	2026-09-18	$0.45	$0.70
Long Wing	`BAX260918P00023500`	$23.50	Call	2026-09-18	$0.30	$0.25

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$23.85Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+0.91%+$0.21 to BE

Expected Move (1σ)±3.27%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio0.28x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$23.50Structural floor intact

Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (0.91%) represents only 28% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$0.15Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$15.001 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$50.00$0.50 spread width

Max Potential Risk$35.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital42.9%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$0.45 / sh$45.00 to close

Net Realized P&L$-30.00-200.0% of credit

Capital Preserved+$5.00Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggerforced exit dte 3Automated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $15.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $0.45. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $5.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.