MRK · Trade Economics

Closed · forced exit dte 3

1x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 15, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-09-18.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length—Relative streak

Robust Z-Score—Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability—Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$143.37At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`MRK260918P00145000`	$145.00	Call	2026-09-18	$2.45	$3.05
Long Wing	`MRK260918P00142000`	$142.00	Call	2026-09-18	$1.21	$1.05

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$143.76Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+0.27%+$0.39 to BE

Expected Move (1σ)±3.27%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio0.08x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$142.00Structural floor intact

Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (0.27%) represents only 8% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$1.24Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$124.001 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$300.00$3.00 spread width

Max Potential Risk$176.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital70.5%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$2.00 / sh$200.00 to close

Net Realized P&L$-76.00-61.3% of credit

Capital Preserved+$100.00Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggerforced exit dte 3Automated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $124.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $2.00. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $100.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.