DB · Trade Economics

Closed · forced exit dte 2

25x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 16, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-09-18.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length6dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-2.99Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability73.3%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$38.57At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`DB260918P00038000`	$38.00	Call	2026-09-18	$0.30	$1.55
Long Wing	`DB260918P00037000`	$37.00	Call	2026-09-18	$0.20	$0.00

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$37.90Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+0.00%In The Money

Expected Move (1σ)±2.67%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio0.00x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$37.00Structural floor intact

Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (0.00%) represents only 0% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$0.10Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$250.0025 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$2,500.00$1.00 spread width

Max Potential Risk$2,250.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital11.1%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$0.35 / sh$875.00 to close

Net Realized P&L$-625.00-250.0% of credit

Capital Preserved+$1,625.00Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggerforced exit dte 2Automated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $250.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $0.35. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $1,625.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.