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Daily Summary

NVDA · Trade Economics

Closed · early profit target

25x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 17, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-09-25.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length5dnegative streak
Robust Z-Score-0.97Deviation vs SPY
Reversion Probability62.5%Bayesian model
Underlying Spot$218.91At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

RoleContract SymbolStrikeOption TypeExpirationEntry PriceCurrent/Exit Price
Short LegNVDA260925P00212500$212.50Call2026-09-25$4.65$1.73
Long WingNVDA260925P00210000$210.00Call2026-09-25$3.65$1.20

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$211.50Short strike minus credit
Move Needed to Win+0.00%In The Money
Expected Move (1σ)±5.35%Volatility over remaining DTE
Feasibility Ratio0.00x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM
Long Wing Barrier$210.00Structural floor intact
Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (0.00%) represents only 0% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$1.00Per share ($100/contract)
Upfront Cash Collected$2,500.0025 contracts total
Gross Margin Required$6,250.00$2.50 spread width
Max Potential Risk$3,750.00Capped worst-case loss
Max Return on Capital66.7%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$0.53 / sh$1,325.00 to close
Net Realized P&L+$1,175.0047.0% of credit
Capital Preserved—Shielded vs full max loss
Resolution Triggerearly profit targetAutomated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $2,500.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $0.53. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $0.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.