ASML · Trade Economics

Closed · profit target

1x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 22, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-10-02.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length4dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-3.49Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability74.2%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$1743.20At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`ASML261002P01590000`	$1590.00	Call	2026-10-02	$52.00	$6.40
Long Wing	`ASML261002P01515000`	$1515.00	Call	2026-10-02	$26.90	$1.40

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$1564.90Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+0.00%In The Money

Expected Move (1σ)±5.98%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio0.00x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$1515.00Structural floor intact

Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (0.00%) represents only 0% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$25.10Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$2,510.001 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$7,500.00$75.00 spread width

Max Potential Risk$4,990.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital50.3%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$5.00 / sh$500.00 to close

Net Realized P&L+$2,010.0080.1% of credit

Capital Preserved—Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggerprofit targetAutomated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $2,510.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $5.00. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $0.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.