HL · Trade Economics

Closed · catastrophic debit cap

25x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 22, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-10-02.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length5dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-0.69Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability78.8%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$18.32At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`HL261002P00018000`	$18.00	Call	2026-10-02	$0.44	$1.06
Long Wing	`HL261002P00017000`	$17.00	Call	2026-10-02	$0.25	$0.21

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$17.81Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+0.00%In The Money

Expected Move (1σ)±5.98%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio0.00x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$17.00Structural floor intact

Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (0.00%) represents only 0% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$0.19Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$475.0025 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$2,500.00$1.00 spread width

Max Potential Risk$2,025.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital23.5%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$0.85 / sh$2,125.00 to close

Net Realized P&L$-1,650.00-347.4% of credit

Capital Preserved+$375.00Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggercatastrophic debit capAutomated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $475.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $0.85. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $375.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.