INTU · Trade Economics

Closed · long wing breached

7x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 24, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-10-02.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length6dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-0.93Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability69.3%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$279.46At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`INTU261002P00292500`	$292.50	Call	2026-10-02	$10.10	$16.80
Long Wing	`INTU261002P00280000`	$280.00	Call	2026-10-02	$4.90	$7.10

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$287.30Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+2.81%+$7.84 to BE

Expected Move (1σ)±5.35%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio0.53x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$280.00Wing breached

Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (2.81%) represents only 53% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$5.20Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$3,640.007 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$8,750.00$12.50 spread width

Max Potential Risk$5,110.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital71.2%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$9.70 / sh$6,790.00 to close

Net Realized P&L$-3,150.00-86.5% of credit

Capital Preserved+$1,960.00Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggerlong wing breachedAutomated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $3,640.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $9.70. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $1,960.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.