INTU · Trade Economics

Closed · catastrophic debit cap

3x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Sep 28, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-10-09.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length8dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-0.80Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability62.5%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$270.15At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`INTU261009P00275000`	$275.00	Call	2026-10-09	$8.80	$13.60
Long Wing	`INTU261009P00265000`	$265.00	Call	2026-10-09	$5.00	$5.10

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$271.20Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+0.39%+$1.05 to BE

Expected Move (1σ)±6.27%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio0.06x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$265.00Structural floor intact

Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (0.39%) represents only 6% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$3.80Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$1,140.003 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$3,000.00$10.00 spread width

Max Potential Risk$1,860.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital61.3%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$7.10 / sh$2,130.00 to close

Net Realized P&L$-990.00-86.8% of credit

Capital Preserved+$870.00Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggercatastrophic debit capAutomated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $1,140.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $7.10. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $870.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.