IREN · Trade Economics

Closed · long wing breached

25x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Oct 1, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-10-09.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length4dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-0.98Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability68.3%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$39.72At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`IREN261009P00042000`	$42.00	Call	2026-10-09	$1.96	$3.20
Long Wing	`IREN261009P00040000`	$40.00	Call	2026-10-09	$1.13	$1.78

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$41.17Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+3.65%+$1.45 to BE

Expected Move (1σ)±5.35%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio0.68x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$40.00Wing breached

Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (3.65%) represents only 68% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$0.83Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$2,075.0025 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$5,000.00$2.00 spread width

Max Potential Risk$2,925.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital70.9%Premium / Max Risk

5. Realized Outcome & Capital Preservation

Intraday management, stop-loss trigger, realized P&L, and downside capital shielded

Exit Fill Price$1.42 / sh$3,550.00 to close

Net Realized P&L$-1,475.00-71.1% of credit

Capital Preserved+$1,450.00Shielded vs full max loss

Resolution Triggerlong wing breachedAutomated risk rule

Risk Management Note: This trade collected $2,075.00 upfront. When the spread widened, the position management system executed the stop-loss discipline, closing the spread at $1.42. This successfully eliminated tail risk and preserved $1,450.00 that was otherwise exposed under the full spread width.