MT · Trade Economics

Active Position

2x Bullish Put Credit Spread entered on Oct 2, 2026 with an expiration of 2026-10-16.

1. Setup & Quantitative Conviction

Multi-day relative streak metrics and Bayesian mean-reversion model probability

Streak Length7dnegative streak

Robust Z-Score-1.26Deviation vs SPY

Reversion Probability74.1%Bayesian model

Underlying Spot$64.55At order generation

2. Option Legs Architecture

Vertical credit spread contract specifications and execution fill marks

Role	Contract Symbol	Strike	Option Type	Expiration	Entry Price	Current/Exit Price
Short Leg	`MT261016P00065000`	$65.00	Call	2026-10-16	$2.25	$2.40
Long Wing	`MT261016P00064000`	$64.00	Call	2026-10-16	$1.90	$1.75

3. Feasibility & Mean-Reversion Telemetry

Contextual stop-loss monitoring: required move to breakeven vs. remaining DTE expected volatility

Breakeven Line$64.65Short strike minus credit

Move Needed to Win+0.15%+$0.10 to BE

Expected Move (1σ)±8.25%Volatility over remaining DTE

Feasibility Ratio0.02x EMThreshold: ≤ 1.25x EM

Long Wing Barrier$64.00Structural floor intact

Feasibility Rule Status: Feasible (Recovery Projected). The required move to breakeven (0.15%) represents only 2% of the statistical expected move over the remaining holding window, meaning mean reversion remains highly feasible.

4. Capital & Risk Allocation Economics

Detailed margin requirement, cash premium collected, maximum capped loss, and return on capital

Net Entry Credit$0.35Per share ($100/contract)

Upfront Cash Collected$70.002 contracts total

Gross Margin Required$200.00$1.00 spread width

Max Potential Risk$130.00Capped worst-case loss

Max Return on Capital53.8%Premium / Max Risk

5. Real-Time Mark & Unrealized Economics

Current spread mark-to-market, unrealized P&L, and risk rule monitoring

Current Spread MarkActiveActive

Net Unrealized P&LActiveActive

Downside Cushion+$-0.10Spot cushion above breakeven

Current StatusActive HoldingRisk rules satisfied

Active Position Note: This trade collected $70.00 upfront and remains actively held. The underlying stock (MT) is trading at $64.55, safely above the breakeven barrier of $64.65. The current spread mark is $—, yielding an unrealized gain of $0.00 (0% of max profit) as time decay (theta) works in our favor.

6. Broker Execution Audit Trail

Alpaca paper trading order submissions and fills

Time (UTC)	Order ID	Side	Qty	Limit Price	Status
19:45:10	`xpc-c126863cb55a...`	sell_to_open	2	$0.54	filled
15:45:10	`xpc-f4dd9ed55945...`	sell_to_open	5	$0.52	filled
13:47:20	`xpc-d530a5ad59b6...`	sell_to_open	25	$0.99	filled